Stay ahead with optimised operation planning: Firstsource delivers 93% accuracy in customer call forecasts for leading bank

93%
accuracy in daily call forecast
50%
reduction in error margin
Stay ahead with optimised operation planning: Firstsource delivers 93% accuracy in customer call forecasts for leading bank
Case study

Background

The client is a leading Indian bank that caters to 78 million customers across 23 countries. Established over 100 years ago, the bank today has more than 5000 branches, of which 104 are located outside India.

The client was looking to optimize operation-planning across processes, particularly for customer service support calls. The primary objective was to maintain fewer employees on bench without comprising on process quality or output.

Business challenge

The client deployed a very rudimentary method called ‘moving average’ that involved manual excel entries for identifying the required headcount for a particular process.

  • The method on account of being very limited in its scope, didn’t produce reliable results leading to poor headcount guidance for the recruitment team. During certain instances the error margin was as high as 50% -80%.
  • The bank therefore maintained a large employee buffer to ensure no disruption in processes, which in turn adversely impacted costs.
  • Maintaining fewer employees on bench for customer service support calls required an approximate accuracy rate of 95% for prediction of number of calls per day.
  • Seasonality associated with the calls (for e.g. more calls on days when salaries were credited or more calls on weekends etc.) posed a major challenge

Firstsource solution

Provisions for seasonality

The client’s call data was analyzed and checked for its stationary and periodic nature. The solution also specifically took into account periods where calls were higher than average. It addressed this issue by running several additional iterations for periods where call rates were skewed.

The forecasting method

An analysis of the cleaned data provided the basis for selecting ARIMA method as the most apt approach for forecasting. ARIMA forecasting was used to create several models. The process ran nearly 3000 iterations to ensure maximum accuracy. After a thorough analysis of all resulting models the best was tested for accuracy levels.

Business impact

The Firstsource solution was a success. Improved accuracy resulted in better headcount guidance and fewer employees on bench.

93%
accuracy in daily call forecast
50%
reduction in error margin

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Firstsource is a leading provider of customised Business Process Management (BPM) services. We specialise in helping clients stay ahead of the curve through transformational solutions in order to reimagine business processes and deliver increased efficiency, deeper insights and superior outcomes.

We are trusted brand custodians and long-term partners to 100+ leading brands with presence in the US, UK, Philippines and India. Our ‘rightshore’ delivery model offers solutions covering complete customer lifecycle across Healthcare, Telecommunications & Media and Banking, Financial Services & Insurance verticals.

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